ANC Loses Majority, Seeks Coalition

South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) has lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years, securing only 40.18% of the vote in the recent general election, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) confirmed on June 2, 2024. This outcome marks a profound shift in the nation's political landscape, as reported by the BBC.

www.bbc.com reported, The party, which has governed since the end of apartheid in 1994, is now engaged in complex negotiations to form a coalition government. This unprecedented situation requires the ANC to seek partners to achieve the necessary 50% plus one seat to govern, as noted by Reuters on Sunday.

President Cyril Ramaphosa acknowledged the results, stating that voters expect parties to work together for the country's future, according to remarks carried by the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC). The ANC's National Executive Committee is currently deliberating on potential coalition options.

www.bbc.com noted, Major opposition parties, including the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 21.81% and the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party with 14.58%, are also crucial players in these talks. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) secured 9.52% of the vote, AP reported on June 2.

The decline in ANC support is widely attributed to voter dissatisfaction over high unemployment, persistent inequality, and widespread corruption allegations. The Guardian highlighted these long-standing grievances as key factors in the party's reduced mandate.

www.bbc.com reported, This electoral outcome necessitates a period of intense political maneuvering and compromise among diverse parties. Al Jazeera noted that the negotiations will test the maturity of South Africa's democratic institutions and its political leaders.

The formation of a stable government is paramount to address the nation's pressing socio-economic challenges and maintain investor confidence. Analysts told Bloomberg that the nature of the coalition will significantly impact future policy direction and economic stability.

• Historical Context and ANC's Dominance: For three decades, the ANC has held an unchallenged majority, symbolizing the liberation from apartheid under Nelson Mandela's leadership. Its consistent electoral victories, often exceeding 60%, established it as the dominant political force, shaping post-apartheid South Africa. This election's result, as reported by News24 on June 2, shatters that long-standing political paradigm, ushering in an era of coalition politics.
• Key Stakeholders and Their Positions: The ANC, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, seeks a stable government, potentially exploring a "grand coalition" with the DA or a "progressive alliance" with the EFF or MK Party. The DA, a liberal party, advocates for market-friendly policies. The MK Party, led by former President Jacob Zuma, and the EFF, a radical left-wing party, have distinct, often populist, agendas, making negotiations complex, according to analysis by the Institute for Security Studies.
• Economic and Social Implications: The uncertainty surrounding coalition formation has already impacted financial markets, with the South African Rand experiencing volatility. Investors are closely watching for signs of political stability and policy direction, as reported by the Financial Times on June 3. A stable coalition could reassure markets, while a fragmented or unstable government might deter investment and exacerbate social tensions related to unemployment and poverty.
• Reasons for ANC's Decline: The ANC's reduced support stems from a combination of factors, including persistent high unemployment (over 32%), rampant corruption within state institutions, and failures in service delivery such as electricity blackouts and water shortages. The rise of new parties like the MK Party, tapping into voter disillusionment and ethnic loyalties, further fragmented the ANC's traditional support base, as detailed by the Council on Foreign Relations.
• Potential Coalition Scenarios: Several scenarios are being discussed. A "grand coalition" between the ANC and DA could offer stability but faces ideological hurdles. An alliance with the EFF or MK Party might be ideologically closer to parts of the ANC but could alarm investors. A minority government, relying on ad-hoc support, is also a possibility but carries inherent instability, political analysts told The Economist.
• Timeline and Constitutional Requirements: The South African constitution mandates that the first sitting of Parliament must occur within 14 days of the election results being declared. During this sitting, members of Parliament elect the President. This tight deadline puts immense pressure on parties to finalize coalition agreements swiftly, a process that began immediately after the IEC announced the final results on June 2.
• Impact on Governance and Policy: A coalition government will likely necessitate compromises on key policy areas, potentially slowing down legislative processes. Decisions on land reform, economic policy, and state-owned enterprises could become subjects of intense negotiation. This shift could lead to more inclusive policymaking but also risks policy paralysis if consensus is hard to achieve, according to a report by the Brenthurst Foundation.