Modi Begins Third Term Amid Coalition Shift

Narendra Modi was sworn in for his third consecutive term as India's prime minister on June 9, 2024, marking a significant shift in the nation's political landscape. As reported by Al Jazeera, this follows his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failing to secure an outright majority in the recent general election.

www.aljazeera.com reported, The ceremony, held at the Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi, saw Modi take the oath of office alongside his new council of ministers. According to Reuters, the event was attended by leaders from neighboring countries, underscoring India's regional diplomatic outreach.

This new mandate sees Modi leading a coalition government, a departure from his previous two terms where the BJP held a clear majority. The Hindu noted that this necessitates a greater reliance on allies, particularly the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)).

www.aljazeera.com noted, The need for coalition partners introduces a new dynamic to governance in the world's most populous democracy. As reported by The Indian Express, policy decisions will now require broader consensus, potentially tempering the BJP's more ambitious legislative agenda.

Analysts suggest this shift could lead to more nuanced policy-making and greater regional representation in national governance. NDTV highlighted that the opposition INDIA bloc, despite not forming the government, has gained significant ground, promising a more robust parliamentary debate.

www.aljazeera.com reported, The election results, announced on June 4, saw the BJP secure 240 seats, falling short of the 272-seat majority needed in the 543-member Lok Sabha. According to data from the Election Commission of India, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, led by the BJP, collectively secured 293 seats.

This outcome contrasts sharply with the BJP's landslide victories in 2014 and 2019, where it won 282 and 303 seats respectively. The Times of India reported that the unexpected result has prompted introspection within the BJP regarding its campaign strategy and public perception.

• Historical Context of Indian Coalitions: India has a rich history of coalition governments, particularly between 1989 and 2014, which often led to complex political negotiations and sometimes unstable administrations. The Economic Times noted that while Modi's previous terms enjoyed single-party majorities, this return to coalition politics echoes earlier eras where regional parties held significant sway over national policy. This experience suggests a potential for both compromise and legislative gridlock.
• Key Coalition Partners and Their Demands: The two pivotal allies in the NDA are the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) from Andhra Pradesh, led by Chandrababu Naidu, and the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) from Bihar, led by Nitish Kumar. According to Hindustan Times, both parties are expected to push for significant financial packages and special status for their respective states, alongside key ministerial portfolios, which could influence the new government's budgetary allocations and development priorities.
• Economic Implications and Policy Continuity: The formation of a coalition government could introduce new considerations for India's economic reform agenda. Livemint reported that while core economic policies are likely to continue, allies might demand greater focus on social welfare programs or agricultural support, potentially slowing down or altering ambitious privatization plans or land reforms. Investors will be closely watching for signs of policy stability and consensus-building.
• Social and Political Landscape Shifts: The BJP's inability to secure a majority independently suggests a public desire for more inclusive governance and a check on its dominant political narrative. The Wire highlighted that issues such as unemployment, inflation, and social polarization played a significant role in voter sentiment. The coalition setup may compel the BJP to moderate its more contentious social policies, fostering a more consensual approach to national issues.
• Opposition's Resurgence and Parliamentary Dynamics: The INDIA bloc, led by the Indian National Congress, secured 234 seats, a substantial improvement from its previous performance. As reported by NDTV, this strengthened opposition is expected to play a more assertive role in parliamentary debates, holding the government more accountable. This shift could lead to more rigorous legislative scrutiny and a more vibrant, albeit potentially fractious, democratic process.
• Challenges in Governance and Consensus Building: Governing with a coalition requires constant negotiation and compromise, which can be challenging for a party accustomed to unilateral decision-making. Carnegie India noted that maintaining cohesion among diverse regional parties with varying interests will be a primary task for Modi. This includes balancing regional aspirations with national objectives and ensuring smooth legislative passage for key bills.
• Impact on India's Global Standing: Despite the domestic political shift, India's foreign policy under Modi is largely expected to maintain continuity. The Financial Times suggested that India's strategic partnerships, including its role in the Quad and its stance on global issues, will likely remain consistent. However, the need for domestic consensus might occasionally influence the government's flexibility in international negotiations or commitments.
• Potential Future Developments and Stability Concerns: The stability of the coalition government will depend heavily on the BJP's ability to manage its allies' demands and maintain their support. Political analysts, as cited by The Print, suggest that while the current alliance appears stable, the long-term viability could be tested by policy disagreements or regional political shifts. The next five years will be crucial in demonstrating the resilience of India's coalition politics.