UN Warns New Climate Pledges Fall Short, World on Track to Exceed 1.5°C Warming Before 2035

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has issued a stark warning in its latest "Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target," revealing that recent climate pledges have done little to alter the trajectory of global warming. According to news.un.org, the world remains precariously close to a significant escalation of climate risks and damages.

The report projects that global average temperatures are likely to surpass the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels before 2035. This alarming forecast underscores the insufficient ambition and action from nations worldwide, as reported by euractiv on Tuesday.

In light of these findings, UNEP emphasizes the urgent need for accelerated action to drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions. This call to action comes just ahead of the COP30 climate conference, scheduled to take place in Belém, Brazil, from November 10 to 21, 2025, as confirmed by cop30 Brasil.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently acknowledged the grim reality, stating that the world has "failed" to prevent global temperatures from breaching the 1.5°C limit. Speaking at the Belém Climate Summit, Guterres warned that a temporary overshoot beyond this threshold is now inevitable, likely starting in the early 2030s, according to Health Policy Watch.

Despite some progress, global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record high of 57.7 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2024, marking a 2.3% increase from the previous year, Carbon Brief reported. This rise highlights the persistent gap between current efforts and the drastic reductions needed to meet climate goals.

Further compounding concerns, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that 2025 is set to be among the top three hottest years on record. The WMO also indicated an 86% chance that at least one of the next five years (2025-2029) will exceed 1.5°C, as detailed in their recent update.

• The 1.5°C target, enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement, represents a critical threshold to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. Scientific research, particularly from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), demonstrates that even a half-degree difference beyond this limit can lead to significantly more severe consequences, including extreme heatwaves, prolonged droughts, and rising sea levels, as highlighted by Diplomatist.

• UNEP's "Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target" indicates that if all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, global warming is projected to be between 2.3-2.5°C this century, a slight improvement from last year's 2.6-2.8°C. However, current policies alone would lead to a more severe 2.8°C warming, according to unep.

• The report and statements from UN officials confirm that a temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C target is now considered unavoidable, likely occurring within the next decade. The focus has shifted to ensuring this overshoot is "minimal and temporary," with aggressive emissions reductions required to bring temperatures back below 1.5°C by 2100, as emphasized by Euractiv and UNEP.

• The upcoming COP30 conference in Belém, Brazil, from November 10 to 21, 2025, will be a pivotal moment for global climate action. Brazil, as the host, aims to strengthen multilateralism, accelerate the implementation of the Paris Agreement, and review the latest NDCs, with the Heads of State Summit brought forward to November 6-7, 2025, according to cop30 Brasil and UNFCCC.

• A significant challenge lies in the slow pace of updated NDC submissions; only about one-third of parties to the Paris Agreement submitted their new 2035 pledges by the September 2025 deadline. Many major emitters have yet to present their plans, indicating a lack of collective ambition that leaves the world far from the 1.5°C pathway, Carbon Brief reported.

• The implications of exceeding 1.5°C are dire, threatening to trigger irreversible climate tipping points and cause widespread damage. Vulnerable ecosystems like coral reefs face near-total destruction at higher temperatures, and increased extreme weather events will exacerbate food and water scarcity, impacting millions, as noted by Diplomatist and Umweltbundesamt.

• UN Secretary-General Guterres has underscored the pivotal role of G20 nations in narrowing the emissions gap. He has also called for developed countries to mobilize $300 billion annually and establish a clear path to reaching $1.3 trillion yearly in climate finance for developing nations by 2035, as reported by Health Policy Watch.

• To mitigate the inevitable overshoot and eventually return to the 1.5°C goal, UN leadership stresses the need for an accelerated fossil fuel phase-out and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. This requires sustained net-negative emissions to actively remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, a monumental task demanding unprecedented global cooperation, according to Health Policy Watch.